By 2040, more than 3 million new cases of breast cancer and 1 million deaths are estimated to occur each year worldwide. Identifying those at greatest risk of developing life-threatening breast cancers is a public-health priority. In this issue of The Lancet Digital Health, Ash Kieran Clift and colleagues developed and evaluated four prognostic models to predict 10-year risk of breast cancer mortality in women aged 20–90 years. The best performing model could be used to identify women at high risk of mortality, including those too young for breast cancer screening. Can such digital health tools benefit patients in real clinical settings, or will they lead to overworked radiologists, overdiagnosis, and excess costs?
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